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A realistic look at the future of sustainable aviation fuel
The United States could feasibly produce enough sustainable aviation fuel to meet roughly two-thirds of its 2030 federal target, but getting there will require overcoming major hurdles, according to a new Washington State University-led study.
SAF, future of aviation...For decades, aviation fuel has been considered an essential variable in the aviation business. Since the beginning of the 21st century, it has come to represent between 25% and 35% of the operating costs of a prototypical airline and has been managed as a financial risk through hedges and economies of scale. But in the present, its logic has changed. Fuel is no longer just input, but a strategic factor capable of redistributing economic capacity, industrial capacity, and regulatory capacity in the international aviation market.
In 2024, the conventional global aviation fuel business was operating within a broad range —between $238 billion and just over $400 billion— according to Global Market Insights, with forecasts indicating that the sector will grow at sustained rates over the next decade due to the recovery of air traffic, Asian expansion, and vertical restructuring processes in corporate structures. Ultimately, as The Economist points out in an analysis of aviation and energy transition, "fuel has shifted from being a necessary, albeit rigid, commodity to a top-tier strategic asset."
The turning point of this change is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), produced from organic waste, and with a substantially lower carbon footprint. Although it remains marginal in absolute terms —in 2024, it was around $1.7 billion— it is growing at rates above 40% per year. Therefore, its relevance does not lie in its current trade, but rather in a regulated horizon for a sector that currently relies on this biofuel as its only ally in significantly reducing emissions. SAF has thus become the main lever for achieving these objectives without redesigning fleets or transforming infrastructure.
From a climate standpoint, its appeal is evident. It can reduce emissions by up to 90% throughout its life cycle, compared to conventional kerosene. The International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes that, without SAF, "commercial aviation does not have a credible pathway to align with climate objectives in 2050." For a sector responsible for between 2% and 3% of global CO₂, this correction ceases to be a nuanced point, becoming a condition of regulatory and reputational survival.
To bridge the cost gap between traditional jet fuel and SAF, Europe has taken on a clear role as a market-maker. The EU and the UK have imposed mandatory blending mandates for sustainable fuels of at least 2% starting in 2025, with increasing steps until 2050. As a result, the consumption of SAF within the domestic market doubled last year, reaching nearly 2 million tons. The Financial Times points out, "Europe has shown that it can create a market where there wasn't one, although provoking demand does not necessarily mean monopolizing production."
Published in the March edition of Biomass and Bioenergy, the study offers one of the most detailed looks yet at the nation's sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, industry.
The researchers found that while domestic production is expanding quickly, the United States remains unlikely to meet its goal of producing 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel annually by 2030 without additional support and continued industry investment.
The study found that the most optimistic scenario projects domestic SAF production could reach about 2.1 billion gallons annually by 2030, roughly two-thirds of the federal target, though substantially lower production levels may be realized depending on market conditions, project delays, and policy support.
"We wanted to take a very pragmatic look at where we really are," said Kristin Brandt, an adjoint faculty member in the Composite and Materials and Engineering Center in WSU's Voiland College of Engineering and Architecture and lead author on the study. "There are people saying this industry is going to explode overnight and others saying nothing will happen at all. The reality is somewhere in between."
Sustainable aviation fuel has emerged as one of the aviation industry's leading near-term strategies for reducing carbon emissions because it can already be blended with conventional jet fuel and used in existing aircraft and airport infrastructure.
Depending on how it is produced, SAF can reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by roughly 80% compared to traditional petroleum jet fuel. Current fuels are commonly made from renewable or waste-based lipids such as used cooking oil, animal fats, and vegetable oils like soybean oil.
Brandt's study analyzed publicly announced U.S. renewable fuel projects stretching back more than two decades. The team examined how often announced projects actually become operational, how long facilities take to build, and whether enough feedstock exists to support projected growth. Researchers also analyzed whether producers are financially incentivized to make aviation fuel instead of renewable diesel for cars and trucks, which is often more profitable under current U.S. policies and market conditions.
One of the study's major findings is what researchers describe as the gap between announcements and reality.
"Announcements are not the same thing as fuel," Brandt said. "People announce giant facilities with aggressive timelines all the time, but historically many projects get delayed, scaled back, or never move forward."
To better estimate likely production, the researchers developed what they call an "implementation ratio," a way of estimating how many announced facilities will ultimately succeed. Historically, only about half of announced projects become operational, though mature technologies tend to perform better.
The study also found that hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, known as HEFA, will likely dominate U.S. SAF production through 2030. These fuels are largely made from fats, oils, and greases such as used cooking oil and animal fats.
"There's actually a global shortage of used cooking oil," Brandt said. "It sounds ridiculous, but it's true."
The study also highlights why sustainable aviation fuel is expected to remain one of the aviation industry's most practical tools for reducing emissions in the coming decades. Commercial aircraft often remain in service for decades, and replacing the fueling infrastructure that supports global air travel would take enormous time and investment.
"When you think about aviation globally, these airplanes fly everywhere," Brandt said. "Even if policies differ between countries, airlines operating internationally are still going to have to meet global standards. This is something the industry is going to have to work through together."
For the researchers, the goal was not to discourage the industry but to provide a clearer picture of the challenges ahead as aviation works toward a lower-carbon future.
"If we want to hit these goals," Brandt said, "we need to be honest about the barriers and realistic about what it will take to overcome them."
Provided by Washington State University
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