AUTONEWS

It is known when manual transmissions and diesels will leave the market…

Experts from Vehicle Data Global (VDG) claim that the increasing number of electric cars on the market, the European Union's decision to significantly reduce the production of vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2035, are leading in only one direction. In a few years, we will be without manual transmissions and diesel engines.

Electric drive means, among other things, a fatal blow to manual transmissions and diesel cars.

Experts from VDG, a company that processes and offers important data in fleet maintenance, believe that manual transmissions will disappear before 2030. It is not profitable for car manufacturers to produce vehicles with manual and automatic transmissions in parallel in the shrinking market for vehicles with internal combustion engines.

Data from recent years show that only 23 percent of all new cars are sold with a manual transmission as an option on the European market. Only 34 percent of drivers chose a manual transmission last year. In 2019, that figure was 55 percent.

“We are approaching a point where the economics of maintaining a manual transmission option are no longer sustainable, given the certification and other costs associated with developing and refining the transmission,” says Ben Hermer, head of operations at VDG.

On the other hand, VDG believes that diesel engines, just like manual transmissions, will disappear before the end of 2030. Similar to manual transmissions, the market for diesel cars is seriously shrinking and it is certain that manufacturers will have a hard time keeping them in production. Today, diesel engines are still offered in their cars by manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, etc.

The extinction of manual transmissions is inherently tied to the switch to electric cars, which typically use single-speed automatic gearboxes. 

However, its demise is also being driven by motorists' preference for the simplicity of an automatic.

The traditional gear stick will be ditched by car makers ahead of the wholesale ban on sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles in 2030, analysts at Vehicle Data Global (VDG) forecast, suggesting this will happen in the next three years.

It says EVs are already wiping them out, but believes a 'moment is approaching' when 'hard economics' will kill off manual gearboxes once and for all.

VDG says manufacturers will be 'reluctant to maintain the overheads and tooling' required to produce cars with the choice of manual or automatic transmissions, especially with the cost of parts and energy rising.

Earlier this year, a market-wide review found that just 23 per cent of new cars in showrooms now have a gear stick, falling from around two thirds a decade ago.

VDG's experts say although diesel's market share has fallen dramatically since the 2015 emissions cheating scandal, the decline of manual transmissions is accelerating faster.

They believe this is underpinned as much by consumer preference as the transition to electrified cars.

Analysis shows that the share of petrol and diesel cars with manual gearboxes has halved since 2016, suggesting EVs are not solely responsible for the shift away from the gear stick.

The study found that, where consumers still actively had a transmission choice for a traditional combustion-engine car, only 34 per cent chose a manual in 2025 - down from 55 per cent in 2019 - as the ease and comfort of an automatic was more desirable.

Latest car registration data also shows that diesel is becoming increasingly unpopular, with fewer than one in 20 (4.8 per cent) new models on our roads in 2026 being diesels.

This is down from one in two new motors just over a decade earlier, as car makers steer away from the 'dirty' connotations associated with the fuel type.

As such, VDG predicts that both may disappear from the car market by the end of the decade.

'Both trends suggest near-simultaneous extinction as soon as 2030, with research, development and production costs increasingly seen as unviable by manufacturers,' the report says.

It would mark the end of the road for the trusty 'motorway mile-munchers' made popular by sales reps in the 2000s, which became incredibly popular thanks to generous tax incentives for running diesel cars introduced by the New Labour government.

Ben Hermer, operations director at VDG, said: 'The moment is fast approaching when the economics of maintaining a manual transmission option don't add up, given the R&D, certification and other overheads involved in developing and refining gearboxes, even if there remains some demand in the market.

'Based on current trend data, between 5 per cent and 10 per cent of cars will theoretically still be manual by 2030.

'But manufacturers will be looking hard at whether maintaining manual gearbox programmes for a shrinking share of the market makes economic sense, while they manage the overall pressures of transitioning from ICE [internal combustion engine] and competing with international market entrants in the EV sector.'

Automatic-only driving tests on the rise...With the skill of changing gear set to become obsolete beyond the next decade, learners are already preparing for a world of driving without manual gear shifting, with automatic-only driving test volumes reaching record highs, according to DVSA figures.

More than one in four new drivers chose to take their test in an automatic car, based on figures from the previous fiscal year.

Of the 1,839,753 practical driving tests taken in 2024/25, 479,556 were in automatics. That represents 26.1 per cent of all tests.

This is a significant increase from 23.4 per cent the previous year and just 19.2 per cent in 2022/23.

Five years earlier (2019/20), automatic driving tests accounted for just 12.7 per cent of all practical tests; wind the clock back a decade (to 2014/15) and they represented a mere 6.9 per cent.

It means automatic driving tests have risen from fewer than one in 14 of all examinations taken ten years ago to one in four today.

But despite the general belief that they are easier to drive, pass rates in automatics are statistically lower.

In the last fiscal year, the pass rate for auto-only tests was just 43.9 per cent; across all driving tests, the average pass rate was 48.7 per cent.

Rules stipulate that auto-only licence holders face more restrictions on the cars they can drive.

While anyone who passes their test in a manual car can legally drive any motor irrespective of its gearbox, those who take auto-only tests are limited strictly to automatic vehicles.

This could present a problem in some scenarios, especially when holidaying in countries where manual gearboxes are still common, including much of Europe.

Motorists hiring cars abroad may face limited or no automatic options from rental providers, especially during peak holiday seasons.

They may also encounter higher charges if they specifically request a car with an automatic transmission.