AUTONEWS

Fuel costs alone won't spark Australia's EV transition

As Australian motorists continue to grapple with rising fuel prices and electric vehicle (EV) sales steadily increase across the country, new research from Edith Cowan University (ECU) has found that petrol costs alone are not the primary factor shaping drivers' decisions to switch to electric vehicles.

The study, published in the Journal of Advanced Transportation, examined the relationship between fuel consumption habits, refueling behaviors and willingness to adopt EVs among Australian motorists, and introduces a behavioral transition framework (BTVF) to explain EV adoption patterns in a more structured way. The findings challenge the common assumption that frequent petrol station visits or high fuel use are key motivators for transitioning to electric vehicles.

While technological advances in battery systems, charging infrastructure and renewable energy integration have accelerated EV uptake globally, the research highlights the importance of understanding the deeply embedded behaviors of drivers who continue to rely on internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs).

"Australia remains at a relatively early stage of its vehicle electrification journey," Dr. Ahdieh Sadat Khatavakhotan from the School of Business and Law said.

"Despite recent increases in EV sales, ICEVs still account for around 80% to 82% of new vehicle registrations. Understanding how Australians interact with the existing fuel system is critical if we want to better understand what drives or hinders the transition to electric mobility."

Dr. Navid Hashemi Taba from the School of Engineering said fuel use alone does not play a decisive role in shaping EV adoption decisions. "Higher petrol consumption does not necessarily make motorists more willing to switch to an electric vehicle. Instead, decisions are influenced by a broader mix of behavioral and economic considerations," he said.

The research analyzed vehicle registration data from the first quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2025 and found that while overall vehicle registrations remained stable, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) consistently represented less than 20% of new vehicle sales.

The study also surveyed more than 400 ICEV owners through face-to-face data collection, achieving a response rate of approximately 98%, to investigate whether refueling frequency influenced their willingness to adopt an EV. Half of respondents indicated they would consider switching to an EV, while 44% said they would not, with the remainder undecided.

However, statistical analysis revealed no significant difference in refueling frequency between motorists willing and unwilling to make the transition.

"The findings show that how often people visit a petrol station is not a reliable predictor of whether they intend to purchase an electric vehicle," Khatavakhotan said. "Refueling routines appear to be habitual behaviors rather than factors that directly influence adoption decisions."

The research suggests that broader behavioral, economic and attitudinal considerations play a much greater role in EV uptake than fuel consumption patterns alone, consistent with the behavioral patterns identified in the proposed framework.

Previous studies have identified factors such as vehicle purchase costs, charging infrastructure availability, driving patterns, environmental attitudes and perceptions of vehicle range as important influences on adoption decisions.

Importantly, while direct petrol expenditure was found to have limited influence on adoption intentions, motorists who were particularly sensitive to petrol price fluctuations and fuel discount incentives appeared more interested in transitioning to electric vehicles.

"This suggests consumers are responding less to the amount of fuel they use and more to concerns about future energy costs and price volatility," Khatavakhotan said. "The decision to adopt an EV is shaped by a complex combination of behavioral, economic and policy factors."

The study also identified infrastructure limitations and vehicle affordability as ongoing barriers to EV adoption in Australia. At the same time, government initiatives such as the Australian government's Powering Australia plan, along with lessons from international markets, demonstrate how targeted incentives and supportive policies can accelerate uptake even where infrastructure challenges exist, highlighting the potential value of more behaviorally informed policy approaches

Australia still relies on diesel for buses...The soaring price of diesel and uncertainties in supply are pressuring Australia to accelerate the electrification of its bus fleet, which is still dependent on fossil fuels. The information comes from The Guardian.

Despite advances in trains and subways, which operate mostly on electricity, buses remain a bottleneck in the energy transition: they account for about 530 million liters of diesel consumed per year and only 1% of the fleet is electric — a number lower than that of countries like China (80%), the Netherlands (25%) and the United Kingdom (12%).

The increase in diesel, which already exceeds US$3 per liter, has intensified the debate on energy security in the country. "Buses carry more than half of public transport passengers in Australia," said the executive director of the Bus Industry Confederation, Varenya Mohan-Ram. "Energy security is not just an operational issue. It is a matter of social equity and community resilience."

Australian states and territories have already set targets for the transition. Canberra and the Sydney metropolitan area plan to operate with 100% electric fleets by 2040. In the Australian Capital Territory, electric buses already represent about 24% of the fleet. In other regions, the progress is more gradual: South Australia is expected to reach 8% this year; Victoria has switched exclusively to electric buses.

"Each electric bus runs on 100% renewable electricity produced in Australia, is cheaper to operate and reduces dependence on foreign fuels," said ACT Transport Minister Chris Steel.

The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) in Australia is shaped by multiple factors, and the cost of fuel alone is insufficient to guarantee mass adoption. While high volatility and rising prices at the pump drive interest among many drivers, the definitive shift depends on other structural, financial, and behavioral variables.

The main reasons preventing fuel costs from leading this transition on their own include: Initial purchase price: The initial cost of buying an EV is still considerably higher than that of an equivalent combustion engine car, despite having decreased in recent years. This obstacle directly affects low-income families.

Charging infrastructure: Australia faces immense geographical challenges. The expansion of a charging network on highways and arterial roads, as planned by the government, is hampered by the vast territory and the need for connections to the electricity grid, which generates range anxiety among drivers.

Dependence on public energy tariffs: Charging the car at home (especially using solar energy) is much cheaper. However, those who rely on public fast chargers remain exposed to the volatility of electricity rates, which reduces the economic advantage.

Cultural resistance and diversity of profiles: Research in the Australian automotive market shows psychological and generational barriers. A significant portion of drivers are resistant to change, regardless of whether gasoline prices reach extreme levels.

Provided by Edith Cowan University