TESLA

Tesla's electric truck could save nearly $400,000 over 10 years, study says

The Tesla Semi Long Range electric truck can generate savings of up to US$404,000, over ten years of operation when compared to a diesel truck in the same category, according to a total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis published by the specialized website Electrek. The survey considers the current scenario of high diesel prices in the United States and compares the Tesla model to the Freightliner Cascadia, one of the main heavy trucks in the US market.

The analysis uses the Tesla Semi with a range of approximately 800 kilometers, priced at US$290,000, plus US$60,000 in charging infrastructure. The diesel truck was estimated at US$165,000, although tariffs and taxes are raising the value of combustion models to up to US$238,000 in the US.

Savings grow over the years...According to the study's calculations, the financial advantage of the electric truck increases with the time of use. The study considered an operation of approximately 160,000 kilometers driven per year — a typical volume for long-distance fleets in the US —, an electricity tariff of US$ 0.12/kWh and diesel at US$ 5.35 per gallon (a US measure equivalent to approximately 3.8 liters). The total costs were as follows:

5 years: savings of US$ 147,000

7 years: savings of US$ 244,000

10 years: savings of US$ 404,000

The study points out that the main factor for this difference is energy consumption. While the diesel truck consumes about US$ 0.42 per kilometer in fuel alone, the Tesla Semi would have an energy cost of approximately US$ 0.12 per kilometer.

Maintenance also weighs on the bill... Another point highlighted is maintenance. Without a combustion engine, traditional transmission or emissions treatment systems, the Tesla Semi would have an estimated maintenance cost of US$ 0.04 per kilometer, compared to US$ 0.11 per kilometer for diesel trucks. According to the publication, this would represent annual savings of approximately US$12,000 for operators who travel 160,000 kilometers per year.

The electricity price question...The savings numbers above assume $0.12 per kWh, which is a reasonable commercial electricity rate in much of the US. But electricity prices vary enormously by region, time of day, and whether demand charges apply — and that’s where the Tesla Semi’s economic case gets more nuanced.

We ran a sensitivity analysis across the full realistic range of $0.08 to $0.50 per kWh:

At $0.08/kWh (cheap off-peak or solar): Tesla Semi saves $181,000 over 5 years, $472,000 over 10 years

At $0.12/kWh (typical commercial rate): Tesla Semi saves $147,000 over 5 years, $404,000 over 10 years

At $0.20/kWh (higher commercial rate): Tesla Semi saves $79,000 over 5 years, $268,000 over 10 years

At $0.25/kWh (expensive markets): Tesla Semi saves $37,000 over 5 years, $183,000 over 10 years

At $0.30/kWh (demand charges kicking in): Tesla Semi loses $6,000 over 5 years but still saves $98,000 over 10 years

At $0.40/kWh and above: Diesel wins at every timeframe, even at the current high diesel prices

The crossover point where diesel becomes cheaper sits around $0.30 per kWh for 5-year ownership and closer to $0.35 per kWh over 10 years. That’s tighter than a lot of Tesla bulls would like to admit — demand charges can easily push commercial electricity rates above $0.25 per kWh in some markets.

The more relevant finding is that the Tesla Semi wins decisively up to about $0.25 per kWh, which still covers the majority of US commercial electricity rates, especially for fleets charging at depots overnight on off-peak rates.

Energy prices could change the scenario...Despite the advantage presented, the analysis emphasizes that the savings depend heavily on the price of electricity. Electrek simulated different energy tariffs and concluded that the Tesla Semi loses competitiveness when the cost exceeds US$0.30/kWh in five-year operations. Above US$0.40/kWh, diesel becomes more economically advantageous in all scenarios evaluated.

Even so, the electric truck remains competitive in most commercial tariffs practiced in the United States, especially in operations with overnight charging in private garages.

High diesel prices favor electric vehicles...The survey also highlights that the recent surge in diesel prices in the US has significantly altered the economic equation for electric trucks. Fuel prices have risen more than 40% since the beginning of 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions, bringing the national average closer to historical records registered during the Russia-Ukraine war. The stability of electricity costs tends to become a strategic differentiator for fleet operators, especially in a sector highly sensitive to diesel volatility.

Infrastructure remains a challenge...The study acknowledges that expanding charging infrastructure remains one of the main obstacles to large-scale adoption. Tesla claims to be building a network of 66 Megacharger stations — high-power chargers aimed at trucks — in logistics corridors in the US, in addition to selling its own chargers to fleet depots.

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