TESLA

Model Y Juniper price may be higher as government funds go to Tesla's lithium refinery instead of tax credits

There is now a 5-month delivery delay for the Model Y in Europe, indicating that the Juniper refresh launch is near, but in the US its future owners may never see the current direct $7,500 discount in the form of a tax credit.

Instead of doling out $200 million a month in the form of direct tax credits that lower the prices of electric vehicles, the governments might be redirecting those funds to battery raw materials' procurement, like what Tesla will be doing with the first American lithium refinery.

Tesla just passed the first sustainably sourced raw material through its Gulf Coast refinery kiln, and is on track to have it operational in 2025, just as promised. Coincidentally, Trump's transportation transition team that is preparing autonomous vehicle legislation in favor of Tesla's Robotaxi rollout, may at the same time redirect the $7,500 Model Y tax credit to projects like Tesla's refinery.

The team has dubbed battery materials like lithium and rare earth minerals "critical to defense production" in a leaked paper, unlike retail electric vehicles or charging stations. President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act includes $7.5 billion for charging infrastructure buildout, as well as the aforementioned $7,500 in direct tax credit that Tesla's Model Y is the largest beneficiary of, and that funding may now be rolled back once there is a new White House administration.

This would directly affect the buying price for future owners of Tesla's upcoming Model Y Juniper refresh, who may never see the tax credit tax reduction that owners of the current version enjoyed.

Trump's transition team argues that securing the battery and raw materials supply chain should be the primary goal of government funding, rather than EV subsidies, and cites Defense Department's studies that this is critical for national security. The Inflation Reduction Act already has a localized battery production component, though, as only vehicles with made-in-US packs qualify, so it remains to be seen if that funding will stay in place.

In addition, Trump's administration is preparing to roll the emission and fuel economy standards for gas-powered cars back to the 2019 levels, and ban government EV mandates, which could complicate the task of automakers like Tesla further. "When he takes office, President Trump will support the auto industry, allowing space for both gas-powered cars and electric vehicles," commented the transition team's spokesperson.

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